The war has already disrupted supplies of key raw materials, including oil, gas, fertilizer and helium.
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Britain is “weeks away” from running out of medicines from painkillers to cancer treatments if the war with Iran continues, experts warn. Image: Getty
Britain is “weeks away” from shortages of drugs ranging from painkillers to cancer treatments if the war with Iran continues, experts warn, and drug prices will also rise.
Conflict in the Middle East has already disrupted supplies of key raw materials, including oil, gas, fertilizer and helium, and health products may be next.
Mark Samuels, chief executive of Medicines UK, which represents generic drug manufacturers that make 85% of drugs used by the NHS, warned that cuts could be made within weeks if the dispute continued.
“We are not in a crisis right now but it is still a serious situation,” he told the Guardian.
Mr Samuels said distributors usually have six to eight weeks’ worth of supplies to avoid shortages, while suppliers to hospitals in the UK need to maintain eight weeks’ supply.
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Satellite image of the Strait of Hormuz. Image: Getty 
David Weeks, managing director of supply chain risk at analyst group Moody’s, said: “It’s a good storm.
“We have a conflict in the Gulf that has led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and India is known as the pharmacy of the world.
“They manufacture many generic drugs and APIs (active pharmaceutical ingredients).
“With the geopolitical situation, it’s harder and harder to pull it off.”
The Strait of Hormuz effectively launched a US-Israeli war against Iran four weeks ago – cutting global oil supplies and driving up energy prices.
During the war, more than 20 ships were attacked throughout the region
A satellite view of Dubai International Airport after a drone caught fire on a fuel tank. Image: Getty 
Pharmaceutical companies have also been forced to stop shipping after chaos at airports in Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi. Some now opt for ocean shipping, extending delivery time.
During the Covid pandemic, the UK and other countries saw shortages of paracetamol and other painkillers as manufacturers in India struggled to meet rising demand.
India produces 60% of the world’s generic drugs and half of the US demand.
The UK produces about a quarter of its medicines domestically, while about a third is imported from India, with a significant proportion coming from the EU.
Mr. Samuels said that the US-Israel war against Iran has doubled the cost of air freight. “One in five NHS medicines come by air, and at the moment manufacturers are trying to absorb those costs,” he said.
“But they have historically had low margins, and the risk is that it hurts some medicines to get to the NHS.”
Medicines that often rely on air transport include those used in clinical trials. Image: Getty 
He added that air cargo volumes fell by 80% earlier this month and remain flat.
Medicines that often rely on air freight include high-value cancer and infectious disease treatments, advanced cell and gene therapy, biologicals that require cold storage, and drugs used in clinical trials.
A government spokesman said: “There are currently no reported shortages of medicines as a result of the conflict in the Middle East. We are closely monitoring the situation for any impact on the medical supply chain.
“The department is actively monitoring emerging threats to delivery resilience and has developed processes to manage disruption in the health and social care sector.”
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